Friday, August 29, 2008

gg, McCain

McCain must be getting desperate. Sarah Palin? Seriously? I bet I can tell what he's thinking though. Just for fun, let's talk about it in terms of fantasy sports, since my brain is still wired to think that way from yesterday.

I was almost certain that Obama would not choose Clinton as his running mate. He wants someone who will help anchor his lead in the polls, someone to take votes away from McCain. He doesn't need to appease Clinton supporters when they are going to end up voting for him anyway. If he drafted Jonathan Papelbon, he does not need to need to draft Francisco Rodríguez in the next round. He's going to take a player from a position who is going to help him in other statistical categories. So Obama chose Biden, an old white man. Don't take this the wrong way; I'm not saying that this is the reason, I'm saying it's a reason.

McCain is trying the same thing. There's the hope to convert some of the Clinton voters and maybe steal some of the thunder from Obama's message of change by doing something completely unexpected of the GOP. However, because he's behind, he's using another fantasy concept: upside. This means passing up more established and competent players/candidates for a rookie that has a high ceiling of return. In the long run, you do better by sticking with the solid veteran, but if you're behind, you might need to take a gamble. That gamble might pay off or it might totally blow up in your face. I don't think McCain is that far behind to justify taking this risk. How could this plan backfire, as it most likely will? It might have to do with the fact that not only is Palin a rookie, she's never played in anything past Little League.

"As for that VP talk all the time, I’ll tell you, I still can’t answer that question until somebody answers for me what is it exactly that the VP does every day?"
-Sarah Palin

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Always a good sign...

...when people are complimenting your picks instead of laughing at them. I just got out of the draft for the 12-team fantasy football league I mentioned below. Here's my team, along with some commentary.

QB - Peyton Manning: (17) I was glad that Manning fell to me here because I wanted to draft either Manning, Romo, or Brees. I feel that Brady's price (he goes around 6th in drafts I've seen) is too high based on his previous season. Out of the top 4 QBs, I thought I got the best deal, as Romo and Brees owners (insanely?) reached for them at 11th and 18th picks respectively. Larry Johnson was the only attractive option.

WR - Plaxico Burress: (32) I wanted T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but Tai took him right before me.

WR - Laveranues Coles: (65) I wanted Jerricho Cotchery, but in every recent draft I've seen, he's been snagged up way before his 83rd ranking.

RB - Joseph Addai: (8) This was huge. Picking 8th, I was expecting someone like Frank Gore to be my best option. Addai is so much better.

RB - Earnest Graham: (41) With only 1 RB in the first three picks, this one needed to be a RB and getting one ranked 33rd on the latest Big Board is not bad.

TE - Kellen Winslow: (56) I tried to avoid drafting a TE too early, waiting patiently as Antonio Gates (44) and Jason Witten (51) went off the board. After I chose Winslow (mostly because I had no backup plan once Calvin Johnson was taken), Tai remarked, "He is no better than the next 5 TEs." This was probably my first mistake during the draft.

W/R - DeAngelo Williams [RB]: (80) I heard he is having a good preseason.

BN - Lee Evans [WR]: (89) I had just filled out my starting lineup minus kicker and defense, so my goal was to choose the best available player regardless of position. I don't know who that is, but Evans was on top of the list. Picks 90-95 went: Scheffler, Fargas, Perry, San Diego, Chester Taylor, and Norwood. None of those guys really look better than Evans.

BN - Ricky Williams [RB]: (104) This was the last of the players on my short list of middle-tier sleepers (projected rank 100-150). Patrick Crayton (72), Nate Burleson (98), Chris Johnson (79), and Jerious Norwood (95) were the others. Apparently, other managers had the same ideas as me (or read the same articles...haha).

BN - Brett Favre [QB]: (113) There's upside here, no? Delhomme, Schaub, and Eli Manning were the other draft-able QBs. Four DEF had already gone in the top 100 and I was considering using this pick for Chicago. Unfortunately, it went at 109. It may be a blessing in disguise, though, because this is earlier than I would've liked to choose a DEF anyway. I was hoping for like two rounds later.

BN - Sidney Rice [WR]: (128) Not sure what I was doing here. I think Derrick Mason would have been a better choice.

BN - Ahmad Bradshaw [RB]: (137) I think this is one of those picks where I just take the highest ranked player that I haven't written a negative note about.

BN - Maurice Morris [RB]: (152) This could be a huge pick if Julius Jones drops out of the picture.

DEF - Tennessee: (161) Just took the highest ranked one available. Tennessee is one of four consistent defenses that have been in the top 12 for the past three seasons. Even then, I probably would have picked New York (159). I might get it anyway since its owner already has Minnesota.

K - Rob Bironas: (176) 2007's 2nd best kicker. Not too shabby for a last round pick.


Overall, I think my draft went well. I am going to try to downgrade my TE and maybe try to boost my bench's strength. I am definitely losing to Tai when we face each other though. Almost half of my offense has a bye week (most notably my top 3 draft picks) and I have barely enough active players to fill the spots.

I wanna get you in the Georgia dome on the fifty yard line

I have been playing fantasy sports for five years. I have gotten pretty good at it. Since 2005, I have been in 14 leagues. Nine of them have finished already and I have placed at least third in regular season standings in all of those leagues (average league size of 12), with the exception of a 4th place finish in a 18-team league. I am currently leading my baseball league. If I win it, I would have at least one league win for three years straight.

With all that said, let me add another thing: I know very little about actual sports. I don’t know which teams belong in the AL or the NL. I couldn’t tell you what teams many of my fantasy players play for in real life. I’m still a little bit hazy on what the different positions in basketball do. I rarely watch sports on TV or in person. I certainly wouldn’t be able to recognize most sports stars if they passed me on the street. I shy away from sports video games because I have no clue how to play them.

I see fantasy sports as a game and the players as stocks with values that rise and fall. Because of the time commitment that is required, I deem it worthy of being competitive over. Like a good investor, I gather information and try to find good values.

This is my first year playing fantasy football. Tai invited me to a $50 entry fee league with his coworkers. I spent this week preparing for the draft, more time than usual because I had to learn all of these unfamiliar names. I can already see some significant differences between fantasy football and basketball/baseball, such as the absence of streaming as a strategy. One thing I’m starting to do to prepare is run through a practice draft in a Yahoo! public league. It’s not a mock draft because I go on to play in the league but it helps me learn which players to reach for and which ones I can hold off on.

I was supposed to do my practice draft yesterday. I had my Excel file and my schedule open. I cracked my knuckles and clicked on the link to Yahoo’s fantasy sports page. It refused to load. Every other webpage didn’t have a problem. Just this specific webpage at this specific time. Even the rest of Yahoo! was working. If you knew all the shit that had happened to me earlier this week though, this kind of cosmic cruelty would seem about par for the course.

I check the site again a little later. Of course it works and of course the draft is already over. I check out the draft results and gaze at the horror that is auto-draft:

QB – Carson Palmer (38)
WR – Larry Fitzgerald (23)
WR – Marvin Harrison (43)
WR – Chris Chambers (63)
RB – Steven Jackson (3)
RB – Ryan Grant (18)
TE – Chris Cooley (58)
BN – Jonathan Stewart (98)
BN – Donald Driver (103)
BN – Jerry Porter (118)
BN – Tony Scheffler (123)
BN – Jon Kitna (138)
K – Shayne Graham (83)
BN – David Akers (143)
DEF – Jacksonville (78)

There are a few picks that I like, but overall, it will be a struggle to transform this team into a winner.

So today, I decide to try it again. This time I can get to the fantasy homepage, but when I try to join the draft, it doesn’t fully load! The progress bar is stuck at about 90% on several attempts. The solution was to update my Flash player because now the draft window is really fancy, with a ton of flashy (heh heh) graphics and features. I was not too happy to see that they show the ADP of each player because it levels the playing field a bit for the managers who don’t do any pre-draft research.

I’d like to think that I have a better team here than my auto-drafted one, but you can be the judge of that:

QB – Donovan McNabb (52)
WR – T.J. Houshmandzadeh (29)
WR – Calvin Johnson (49)
WR – Donald Driver (69)
RB – Frank Gore (9)
RB – Larry Johnson (12)
TE – Vernon Davis (92, autodrafted/ran out of time)
BN – Jamal Lewis (32)
BN – Matt Forte (72)
BN – Jay Cutler (89)
BN – Anthony Gonzalez (109)
BN – Selvin Young (112)
BN – Donte’ Stallworth (129)
K – Kris Brown (149)
DEF – Jacksonville (132)

I hated being at the end of the snake (9th pick with 10 teams). It forced me to reach for some players to fill scarce positions (McNabb, Driver). I learned that it is not a good idea to go RB-RB with the first two picks because the RB position is deep and there are a lot of good values to be found in the middle rounds of the draft when managers are skipping over RBs to fill other positions. Anticipating this, I would try to get a WR with one of my first two picks, so that I wouldn’t feel pressured to reach for one later when the run starts. I would’ve enjoyed getting Jamal Lewis with the 32nd pick if I had chosen Terrell Owens in the second round instead of Larry Johnson. I’m not sure how important the bench is in fantasy football yet. I know I can use my RB3 at least twice, during the bye weeks of my main guys. But if there’s not much more to that, then it would be a lot of wasted stats for Lewis.

Now I turn my attention to Tai’s league, where there’s money on the line and the smack talk matters. I don’t know Tai’s coworkers, so as far as I’m concerned, it’s more or less like a public league. The main thing that I needed to take into consideration though is the custom settings for the league. These are the differences from the default settings and the adjustments I am making in my drafting strategy:

12 teams instead of 10 - I don't have enough experience to know how to adjust my drafting for this, but I think it means that shallow positions are even more valuable. Being at the end of the snake would be even more brutal too, as you would have to watch up to 22 picks go by between yours. Yup, might have to stretch before the draft because of all the reaching you'll do.

W/R replaces one WR position – It allows the manager more flexibility in setting his lineup. This slot is going to be filled by a RB most of the time because they score more points. But if there are three good WR matchups for the week, this will be useful. In terms of drafting, there is less pressure to reach for WR. This also makes drafting RB-RB for the first two rounds a more attractive strategy.

Passing Touchdowns worth 6 points instead of 4 – This is a huge boost to the value of the QB position, which is already the highest-scoring. Tom Brady would have scored you an extra 100 fantasy points last year under this setting. Drafting a top 5 QB is essential.

Interceptions worth -2 points instead of -1 – No significant effect. QBs don’t throw more than 25 interceptions over the course of the season and the touchdown boost above more than compensates for this.

(Offensive) Return Touchdowns not scored – No significant effect.

FG (0-39 yds.) missed worth -1 point – No significant effect. Kickers only miss a few field goals per season.

Blocked Kicks worth 3 instead of 2
Kickoff and Punt Return Touchdowns worth 6 points
– Chicago led the league in return TDs in 2006 and 2007 by a margin of 2. They also led the league in blocked kicks last year. These two changes slightly boost other DEF point contributions, but they don't boost their relative value like it does for Chicago. Unlike a manager who is looking to get San Diego or Minnesota, I can just let the crowd dictate when the run for DEF will start rather than risking jumping the gun too early.


I will update the blog later tonight after the draft. Hopefully everything goes according to plan!

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Brain Pain

If you have already beaten Minesweeper and Sudoku puzzles backwards and forwards and are still looking to get your logic fix, let me recommend my time sink today, Hexiom Connect. It has 40 levels, so the learning curve is gradual. There is also a random level generator to add some replay value. I have less than ten levels to go, so expect a brag post once I finish tackling the hard badge. Some of the levels will make your brain hurt just from looking at it, but having a systematic approach is the key in making sense of the chaos. Just make sure that approach doesn't include being a wuss and using a walkthrough.

If you liked the game, check out others at Kongregate's puzzle page. I recommend 3D Logic and Bloons because they are good enough to have sequels in case you get utterly hooked.

Edit (8/31/08): Got the hard badge. Man, level 39 took me a while...

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Necessity is the mother of invention

Without getting into the details leading up to this, here's the situation: She is happily asleep next to me and I'm lying there with my first case of blue balls in over a year. I surreptitiously sneak out of bed and head to the bathroom to try to rub one out. It was then that I discovered a second use for face wash.

I'm just glad that I use this now

























instead of my old face wash:

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

No Limit Soldier

I broke my rule of only risking $400 max at the casino last night. I was pissed after losing two buy-ins at my usual 200NL game. I withdrew another $400 and went to the 400NL table, which had significantly better players. It seemed like the only time big pots were won was when an excellent hand beat a great hand. However, my biggest hand of the night came as a result of a breakdown in discipline for one of my opponents:

Two players limp in preflop. I (stack size $700) am in the small blind with JJ. I raise it up to $70. The big blind (stack size $1500+), who is known for playing any hand, calls. One of the limpers (stack size $600), a young hotshot type, calls. Flop comes 4-5-8 rainbow. I check and the big blind checks. The last player thinks for a long time, then goes all-in. I go in the tank. I feel that a straight or set would not have made such a large overbet. Pocket kings or aces probably would have reraised preflop instead of seeing the flop three-way. I am not sure what hand he has, but I think that he puts me on AK who got scared when I got two surprising calls. I call. He has 8-6 and my jacks hold up.

--------------------

Since we're on the subject of No Limit, I have to share these YouTube comments on the video for "Make 'Em Say Ugh":

"fights used to always break out at the club when this song ... went on"

"Lol this song is fucking sick but at the same time its pretty retarded in many ways"

"THIS SONG IS FUCKING INTENSE"

"i hATE THE WAY SILK THE SHOCKER RAPS ITS LIKE HE ALWAYS OFF BEAT AND SHIT"

"Since young people have matured, nobody don't really like Master P anymore, he don't sell anymore, and since I have matured since 7 monts ago and more, I don't like his shit, but this song is still aight and kind of crunk. Ugh-boo!"

Friday, August 15, 2008

What does a popsicle and a thermos have in common?

There is something awesome about the sight of a grown man eating a popsicle. He was a swarthy, solidly-built guy with a bit of a resemblance to Sylvester Stallone sitting at the poker table enjoying a bright red popsicle at 11pm. Where did he even get it? What if in addition to those chip carts you see in the casinos there were guys pushing carts of Mexican frozen treats? I guess the little bells would get annoying after a while.

Thinking of popsicles led me to thinking about other genericized trademarks. There are different degrees of them, I concluded. Popsicles are a better example than Kleenex or xerox, for example, because most people will still say "tissue" and "copy".

Thursday, August 14, 2008

There are going to be a lot of poker-related posts in this blog

After butting heads a few times with a guy who had about $3000 in chips, he told me, "I just can't figure you out." Now that's the ultimate poker compliment.

I went on to have one of my best sessions in recent memory.

--------------------

As I walked up to the cashier cage to cash out, I saw a guy ahead of me buy about $40 in chips. The thing was, he paid with an assortment of bills and coins.

"Do you ever get worried when you see that?" I asked the cashier.

"I try not to think about it. But I know what you mean."

Monday, August 11, 2008

Little Victories

I have no job. I have no girlfriend. I have no direction in my life. By many standards, I should be considered a loser. I am like a stoner letting the years of my youth float away, except I don't even get a good high out of the deal. But this isn't going to be a pity party because there are no neglectful parents or chronic illnesses to blame, just a man in his mid-twenties with just a little too much intelligence to settle for the mundane, but just a little short of the ambition needed to really do something about it. In fact, I am aiming to make this the first and last time I use this tone here. I know it will be a long time before I consider myself truly successful and happy. In the meantime, it is important for me to acknowledge, maybe even celebrate, the little victories in life. Most of them won't be relevant to my life's challenges, but that isn't the point. The point is that those moments that make you do a fist pump are great and deserve to be captured in a blog. By the way, "littlevictories.blogspot.com" and "fistpump.blogspot.com" were already taken.

--------------------

Tonight, I turned in another winning session at Hollywood Park's 200NL game ($3/$5 blinds). I played awfully, however, donking off chips with questionable hands and buckling under weak bets. Thanks to some bad plays by my opponents, I was able to see my stack size seesaw rather than just disappear into the felt. Several hours into the session, I was at $701 after posting the small blind. Now, I don't know if it's superstition or OCD, but I like cashing out with a nice even number. After tipping my usual dollar to the cashier, I would be walking out with a cool $500 in profit. Of course, this is a terrible basis for deciding when to leave a table. It is just one of those little illogical flaws I have in my game, like how some people have a favorite starting hand that they will play preflop when they otherwise shouldn't. In a situation like this, I even hope that someone will make a preflop raise so that I don't have to agonize over throwing in $2 to complete the blind and ruining my perfect chip count. Thankfully, there was a raise and I happily folded.

I go into tight mode, folding crappy hands as I wait for the big blind to come to me (I heard that writing/speaking in present tense makes for better storytelling). Then I am under the gun. Ah, one more fold and it will be time to go home. I take a peek and see A♣T♣. Just great... An ace-nine offsuit, I wouldn't have had trouble folding. I limp in and most of the table follows along. The flop comes 5♣6♣7♣. I fire out $20. The player to my left calls. Action makes it down to the cutoff and he grabs four yellow chips. But then he starts to mentally hem and haw. He shows his already-folded neighbor his hand. Finally he goes all-in. I flat-call, but the player on my left folds. The poor guy has a red 4-8 and now I'm sitting with about $850 in chips. I have another OCD dilemma now. Even stacks of chips are nice, but people like me also like to break arbitrary goals that we set. This has led to some headbanging in the past where a thought like "I have $490. I'll leave when I crack the $500 mark. Just gotta steal the blinds once or something." eventually resulted in me losing it all.

So I decide to stick around and go for $1000. I think you might have a feeling for how this story ends already. A few orbits later, I am on the button with pocket nines and a table full of limpers. I raise it up to $30, but I still get about five callers. The flop shows 9♥T♣Q♦. A little worrisome, but still a great flop for me. A woman bets $75 and a relatively short stack calls. I raise it to $200 to force the short stack to make an all-in decision. But first, the initial bettor is clearly not liking the raise. She hesitantly makes the call, the short stack calls, and the turn brings an 8♥. The woman's demeanor does a 180° and she confidently goes all-in for $300+. I groan and fold. She has J♥Q♥, the other player has some bullshit like J6o, and they chop up the pot.

Dang, just goes to show you should never question the sign of the even stack.

--------------------

Another victory today came in the form of this Flash game that I've been addicted to for the past couple of days called Amorphous+. I finally cleared the big nest after I-don't-know-how-many tries. Now to work on that Hall of Fame badge...