Justice, Sweet Justice

The superstitious gambler is presented with a dilemma when a roulette display shows a monochromatic streak. When the last eight spins of the wheel have come up black, does that mean you should go with the trend and bet black or bet red because it's "due"? For what it's worth, I always bet red (followed by the Martingale system if another black does come).

In this poker situation, I went with black. One of my dreams is to travel around the world to play poker. I spend part of my poker profits playing online tournaments that satellite to live events. These tournaments have payouts that are even more top-heavy than normal and there is no possibility of a deal. This creates a heartbreaking bubble which I've been on the wrong side of more often than not. So when you have a streak of three tournaments where you go deep (but not quite win; see previous post), what do you do? You could say that it is statistically unlikely to place in the top two in these satellites and now that you've done it three times, it's best to quit while you're ahead. Red.

However, poker is not like roulette where you can sit back and watch the wheel answer the question "What if?" When you bet red, the situation will still be there a month from now. What are you going to do, never play a live event satellite again?

No, you take confidence from your previous deep finishes, remind yourself that poker is more skill than luck, and take the plunge. And here, it's not red that's due, it's a motherfucking win.




The conditions were favorable, my friends: a three entry fee overlay and one player who forgot about the tournament and sat out the whole time. Favorable turned to destined when I exacted apropo justice to the player who cracked my aces in the last tournament by busting him out with pocket aces.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $400+$25 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (6 handed)


Hero (CO) (t4607)

Button (t10630)

SB (t4420)

BB (t4910)

UTG (t5270)

MP (t5163)



Hero's M: 102.38



Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A

1 fold, MP calls t30, Hero bets t150, 1 fold, SB calls t135, 2 folds



Flop: (t360) 6, Q, 3 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets t210, SB raises to t540, Hero calls t330



Turn: (t1440) 6 (2 players)

SB bets t270, Hero raises to t1070, SB calls t800



River: (t3580) 10 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets t2847 (All-In), SB calls t2660 (All-In)



Total pot: t8900



Results:

SB had A, Q (two pair, Queens and sixes).

Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and sixes).

Outcome: Hero won t8900




The hand that made sure I had a few bad beats to spare when it came time for heads up:


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $400+$25 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (4 handed)


Hero (SB) (t15117)

BB (t10000)

UTG (t4340)

Button (t5543)



Hero's M: 100.78



Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, K

2 folds, Hero bets t300, BB calls t200



Flop: (t600) 5, Q, Q (2 players)

Hero bets t400, BB raises to t1000, Hero raises to t2800, BB calls t1800



Turn: (t6200) 6 (2 players)

Hero bets t2000, BB calls t2000



River: (t10200) 2 (2 players)

Hero checks, BB bets t1000, Hero raises to t4100, BB calls t3100



Total pot: t18400



Results:

Hero had Q, K (three of a kind, Queens).

BB mucked 8, 8 (two pair, Queens and eights).

Outcome: Hero won t18400




And finally, the last hand:


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $400+$25 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (2 handed)


Hero (SB) (t32769)

Button (t2231)



Hero's M: 145.64



Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8

Button bets t2231 (All-In), Hero calls t2081



Flop: (t4462) J, 6, 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)



Turn: (t4462) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)



River: (t4462) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)



Total pot: t4462



Results:

Button had K, Q (two pair, Queens and sixes).

Hero had 8, 8 (full house, eights over sixes).

Outcome: Hero won t4462